1.0WAMUhttps://wamu.orgWAMUhttps://wamu.orgrich600338<blockquote class="wp-embedded-content" data-secret="HHUTraQnKa"><a href="https://wamu.org/story/24/01/27/early-polls-dont-always-foretell-the-fate-of-a-first-term-president-does-anything/">Early polls don’t always foretell the fate of a first-term president. Does anything?</a></blockquote><iframe sandbox="allow-scripts" security="restricted" src="https://wamu.org/story/24/01/27/early-polls-dont-always-foretell-the-fate-of-a-first-term-president-does-anything/embed/#?secret=HHUTraQnKa" width="600" height="338" title="“Early polls don’t always foretell the fate of a first-term president. Does anything?” — WAMU" data-secret="HHUTraQnKa" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" class="wp-embedded-content"></iframe><script type="text/javascript"> /*! This file is auto-generated */ !function(c,d){"use strict";var e=!1,o=!1;if(d.querySelector)if(c.addEventListener)e=!0;if(c.wp=c.wp||{},c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage);else if(c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage=function(e){var t=e.data;if(!t);else if(!(t.secret||t.message||t.value));else if(/[^a-zA-Z0-9]/.test(t.secret));else{for(var r,s,a,i=d.querySelectorAll('iframe[data-secret="'+t.secret+'"]'),n=d.querySelectorAll('blockquote[data-secret="'+t.secret+'"]'),o=new RegExp("^https?:$","i"),l=0;l<n.length;l++)n[l].style.display="none";for(l=0;l<i.length;l++)if(r=i[l],e.source!==r.contentWindow);else{if(r.removeAttribute("style"),"height"===t.message){if(1e3<(s=parseInt(t.value,10)))s=1e3;else if(~~s<200)s=200;r.height=s}if("link"===t.message)if(s=d.createElement("a"),a=d.createElement("a"),s.href=r.getAttribute("src"),a.href=t.value,!o.test(a.protocol));else if(a.host===s.host)if(d.activeElement===r)c.top.location.href=t.value}}},e)c.addEventListener("message",c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage,!1),d.addEventListener("DOMContentLoaded",t,!1),c.addEventListener("load",t,!1);function t(){if(o);else{o=!0;for(var e,t,r,s=-1!==navigator.appVersion.indexOf("MSIE 10"),a=!!navigator.userAgent.match(/Trident.*rv:11\./),i=d.querySelectorAll("iframe.wp-embedded-content"),n=0;n<i.length;n++){if(!(r=(t=i[n]).getAttribute("data-secret")))r=Math.random().toString(36).substr(2,10),t.src+="#?secret="+r,t.setAttribute("data-secret",r);if(s||a)(e=t.cloneNode(!0)).removeAttribute("security"),t.parentNode.replaceChild(e,t);t.contentWindow.postMessage({message:"ready",secret:r},"*")}}}}(window,document); </script> https://wamu.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ap24023822261717_wide-b2d5026113e159688724f505f341901af1f70309.jpg24671388If polls are not perfect predictors of an incumbent's reelection, is there something else that is? Observers have long sought the True North by which to set their compass and their expectations.