Terry McAuliffe is leading Ken Cuccinelli by anywhere from four to 12 percentage points, but Tuesday's election could still swing depending on turnout.
In Virginia, some polls show Democrat Terry McAullife with a significant lead over Republican rival Ken Cuccinelli in the race for governor, while others show the race is a little tighter. But at the end of the day, it's going to depend on who comes out to vote.
A poll by the Washington Post put the gap between McAuliffe and Cuccinelli at 12 percent, while a more recent poll by Quinnipiac University pinned it at a more modest four-percent advantage for the Democrat.
Political analyst Dr. Bob Holsworth says the difference — and one of the problems with the polls — problem with the polls can be explained by how they estimate how many people will come out and vote.
"You have in some of these polls, 80 percent of the registered voters saying they're going to vote, where in reality, we know by history, it might somewhere between 40 and maybe 45 percent at the high point that's actually going to turn out," he explains.
He says while it's not reassuring to see yourself fall behind as is the case with Cuccinelli, it's no time for any candidate to throw in the towel. But it does hurt fundraising efforts.
"You lose your capacity to gain a lot of money to put on those commercials in the last few days of the campaign," he says.
But when there's been a trending double-digit lead as McAuliffe has had in some polls, Holsworth says there could be some dangers for the Democrat, especially if his internal polling doesn't reflect the same lead.
"He doesn't want Democrats to be complacent. He doesn't want Democrats to think, 'This election's over, it doesn't mean that I have to come out," he says.
Libertarian Robert Sarvis still may hold the key if voters decide to stick with him or switch their votes to influence the outcome between the two front-runners.