The 495 Express Lanes utilize dynamic pricing, based on the congestion on the road at any given time.
Nearly five months after opening, the operators of the 495 Express Lanes are struggling to attract motorists to their congestion-free toll road in a region mired in some of the worst traffic congestion in the country.
Transurban, the construction conglomerate that put up $1.5 billion to build the 14-mile, EZ Pass-only corridor on the Beltway between the I-95 interchange and Dulles Toll Road, will let motorists use the highway free this weekend in a bid to win more converts.
"It takes a lot of time for drivers in the area to adapt to new driving behaviors. A lot of us are kind of stuck on autopilot on our commutes. That trend might continue for a while, too," said Transurban spokesman Michael McGurk.
Light use of HOT lanes raises questions
McGurk says some drivers are confused about the new highway's many entry and exit points. Opening the Express Lanes for free rides this weekend will let motorists familiarize themselves with the road, he said.
After opening in mid-November, the 495 Express Lanes lost money during their first six weeks in business. Operating costs exceeded toll revenues, but Transurban was not expecting to turn an immediate profit. In the long term, however, company officials have conceded they are not guaranteed to make money on their investment. Transurban's next quarterly report is due at the end of April.
To opponents of the project, five months of relatively light traffic on Virginia's new $2 billion road is enough to draw judgments. Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) has not recovered since the recession knocked millions out of work, and more commuters are seeking alternatives to the automobile, according to Stewart Schwartz, the executive director of the Coalition for Smarter Growth.
"They miscalculated peoples' time value of money. They overestimated the potential demand for this road," said Schwartz, who said the light use of the 495 Express Lanes should serve as a warning.
"We should not have rushed into signing a deal for HOT lanes for the 95 corridor, and we certainly shouldn't rush into any deal on I-66," he said.
Transurban answers its critics by pleading for patience.
"We're still in a ramp-up period. You've probably heard us say that since the beginning, too, but with a facility like this it's a minimum six months to two years until the region falls into a regular pattern on how they're going to use this facility," McGurk said.
In its first six weeks of operations, toll revenues climbed on the 495 Express Lanes from daily averages of $12,000 in the first week to $24,000 in the week prior to Christmas. Traffic in the same period increased from an average of 15,000 daily trips to 24,000, according to company records. Despite the increases, operating expenses still outstripped revenues.
It is possible that traffic is not bad enough outside of the morning and afternoon rush hours to push motorists over to the EZ Pass lanes on 495.
"It may also show that it takes only a minor intervention to remove enough cars from the main lanes to let them flow better," said Schwartz, who said the 14-mile corridor is simply pushing the bottleneck further up the road.
Even Transurban's McGurk says customers who have been surveyed have complained that once they reach the Express Lanes' northern terminus at Rt. 267 (Dulles Toll Road), the same terrible traffic awaits them approaching the American Legion Bridge.
Express Lanes a litmus test for larger issues
The success or failure of the 495 Express Lanes will raise one of the region's most pressing questions as it looks to a future of job and population growth: what is the best way to move people and goods efficiently? Skeptics of highway expansions say expanding transit is cheaper and more effective.
"An approach that gives people more options and reduces driving demand through transit and transit-oriented development may be the better long-term solution. But we've never had these DOTs give us a fair comparison between a transit-oriented investment future for our region and one where they create this massive network of HOT lanes," said Schwartz, who said a 2010 study by the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (pdf) pegged the cost of a tolled network of 1,650-lane miles of regional highways at $50 billion.
Transportation experts say a form of congestion pricing, either tolled lanes or a vehicle miles traveled tax, may be part of a regional solution to congestion. The public, however, needs to be explained why.
"As long as the majority of system remains non-tolled and congested then you are not going to solve the problem," said Joshua Schank, the president of the Eno Center for Transportation, a D.C.-based think tank. "Highways in this region are drastically underpriced. People are not paying enough to maintain them and they certainly are not paying enough to pay for the cost of congestion."
The 495 Express Lanes are dynamically-priced, meaning the tolls increase with demand for the lanes. The average toll per trip in the highway's first six weeks of operations was $1.07, according to Transurban records. As motorists enter the lanes they see signs displaying how much it will cost to travel to certain exits, but no travel time estimates are displayed.
"It is important to be very clear to drivers about the benefit of taking those new lanes, and I am not sure that has happened so far," said Schank, who said it is too early to conclude if the Express Lanes are working as designed.
"It's hard to know if it works by looking whether the lanes are making money. I don't know if that is the right metric. It's the right metric for Transurban, but it's not necessarily the right metric from a public sector perspective," he said. "The real metric is to what extent does it improve economic development and regional accessibility, and that's a much harder analysis that takes some real research and time."