For weeks, people have been speculating about the importance of Ohio in presidential politics, and it's true that Ohio is a key battleground state. But Virginia Center for Politics analyst Kyle Kondick says that's only true under certain conditions.
"Assuming that Romney just automatically has Florida and Virginia in the bag is probably not right at this point," he says.
A new Quinnipiac University poll shows President Barack Obama with a narrow lead over Romney in Virginia — 49 to 47 percent. That's within the margin of error for the poll, which is plus or minus three points.
George Mason University professor Michael Fauntroy says Romney has momentum, but Obama has better ground game in Virginia. "Ultimately in races this close, it's all about get-out-the-vote and ground game."
Oh, and that idea that Ohio is the presidential kingmaker?
"Ohio's preeminence in presidential elections is likely to be challenged by Virginia going forward, and over the course of the next 50 years, it's quite possible that Virginia will be what Ohio has been during the last 50 years," says Fauntroy.
Ohio may end up being significant, but only if Romney wins in Virginia, which is still a hotly contested race.