Political Scientist Asks: Are Obama's Approval Ratings Better Than They Seem? | WAMU 88.5 - American University Radio

NPR : News

Political Scientist Asks: Are Obama's Approval Ratings Better Than They Seem?

President Obama's voter-approval ratings certainly have been far from spectacular for much of his presidency, remaining mostly below 50 percent since November of 2009.

But on that dimension he may actually be doing better than it appears, at least based on some statistical modeling of presidential approval ratings conducted by George Washington University political scientist John Sides.

After examining presidencies going back to Dwight Eisenhower, and figuring out both the expected and actual voter-approval ratings for those White House occupants, Sides concluded that Obama is actually outperforming the favorability rating history would predict.

Sides wrote about this recently in the FiveThirtyEight blog on the New York Times web site.

"In fact, he is more popular than expected, and consistently so throughout these three years. His quarterly approval ratings are, on average, nine points higher than expected...

"... Only two other presidents have experienced a discrepancy between expected and actual approval in their first terms that was larger than the discrepancy in Mr. Obama's first three years. One was George W. Bush, and this arises largely because the model doesn't fully anticipate the quickness and size of the "rally effect" that took place after Sept. 11, 2001. The other was Ronald Reagan, whose first-term approval ratings exhibited more fluctuation than Mr. Obama's but were about 10 points above the model's expectations, on average."

Sides offers two reasons why Obama may be outperforming the expected approval rating his computer model predicts. Many voters find Obama's persona more appealing than media talking heads typically allow for.

The other reason is, even given the state of the economy, voters still don't blame the president, Sides says. The political scientist bases that conclusion on his reading of polling data. Sides has written about this on The Monkey Cage political-science blog for which he is a regular contributor.

It's an interesting hypothesis though, in the end, it's obviously less important for the president and his supporters that his actual approval rating exceeds some computer's prediction than it be strong enough to carry him to a second term.

Copyright 2012 National Public Radio. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.

NPR

New Technology Immerses Audiences At Sundance Film Festival

From flying like a bird to walking through a refugee camp in Syria, virtual reality has enabled journalists, filmmakers and artists to immerse their audience in their stories like never before.
NPR

Sandwich Monday: Girl Scout Cookie Coffeemate

For this week's Sandwich Monday, we try Girl Scout Cookies in a new form. Coffeemate has somehow blended them into nondairy creamer, so you can start your day the disturbing way.
WAMU 88.5

Court Approves McDonnell's Request To Remain Free During Appeal

A federal appeals court is approving former Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell's request to remain free while he appeals his corruption convictions.
NPR

Just Plane Sad: A Show Of Support For SkyMall

News last week that SkyMall's parent company has filed for bankruptcy protection inspired an outpouring of odes to the kitschy in-flight catalog.

Leave a Comment

Help keep the conversation civil. Please refer to our Terms of Use and Code of Conduct before posting your comments.